FHSD Presents May 2025 Update to Five-Year Financial Forecast

During the May 21, 2025 Board of Education meeting, Forest Hills School District Treasurer Alana Cropper presented the annual update to the Five-Year Financial Forecast Report. This document provides detailed information about the finances of the General Fund, which accounts for approximately 79% of FHSD’s total annual budget.

The five-year forecast is initially presented to the Board of Education each November, with an updated version provided to the Board in May. The report serves as a planning document to assist with fiscal management and accountability by showing historical and projected revenue and expenses.

The forecast is designed to adjust over time to reflect changing factors that impact the district’s finances, which is why the report is presented twice every school year. For example, this version of the five-year forecast takes into account all additional data that has become available since November.

You can click the following links to view the official copy of the May 2025 Five-Year Financial Forecast Report and related materials:

• Video of Treasurer Cropper’s Presentation to the Board of Education
• Five-Year Financial Forecast (Ending in 2029)
• Five-Year Forecast Board Presentation Slides

You can find additional information about the five-year forecast by visiting the district’s dedicated webpage to the document here. In completing the five-year forecast, FHSD, like other public school districts in Ohio, follows specific parameters and requirements laid out by the state of Ohio. You can learn more about the process on the state’s website here.

The district’s General Fund, which is the primary focus of the five-year forecast, is used to pay for things like staff salaries and benefits, purchased services from outside contractors and supplies and materials that support classroom education, supporting the majority of the day-to-day operations for FHSD. Other funds include permanent improvement, food service, bond retirement and more.

In creating the five-year forecast, Treasurer Cropper evaluates past trends for known data points, adjusts calculations to match known historical data and makes predictions for key variables that could impact future finances. The report contains information about those key assumptions and provides additional notes when such predictions are utilized. Some specific items entirely outside the district’s control that can have a noticeable impact on the forecast include changes to the amount of state funding, property valuations and revisions, legislative mandates, economic inflation and more.

It is important to remember that any changes or adjustments at the state level in regards to school funding can rapidly change projections in the forecast between updates. With lawmakers currently discussing the state’s biennial budget, any adjustments to the amount of funding FHSD receives will be reflected in the next five-year forecast in November. Depending on what is ultimately decided by the state legislature and governor, the forecast could include significant changes.

The updated forecast shows a projected increase in revenue for the school district during fiscal year 2025 (which runs from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025). This is expected based on the introduction of the 2023 operating levy during tax year 2024, which overlaps with the district’s 2025 fiscal year. That revenue is expected to stay relatively consistent over the next four fiscal years.

Based on projections in the forecast, the General Fund is expected to see its cash balance increase over the short-term. However, costs are also expected to continue to rise due to factors outside the district’s control. Inflationary increases in the cost of items like food, fuel, energy and more continue to impact the district’s financial bottom line. General Fund expenditures could exceed revenues as early as fiscal year 2028. Based on the projected ending cash balance values, the district does not anticipate a need to request a new levy during the timeframe covered by this report.

The May 2025 Five-Year Forecast Financial Report included updated data from the current school year, which indicates that total revenue is expected to be over by $1,575,796 or 1.5% for fiscal year 2025. Expenditures are also expected to be slightly higher for the same year by approximately $598,385 or 0.6%. This means the projected ending cash balance for the current fiscal year is now anticipated to be roughly $977,411 higher than was projected in November.

Treasurer Cropper also presented information about where the district’s funding comes from and how that plays a role in financial planning. Currently, approximately 72% of General Fund revenues come directly from local taxpayers and state funding accounts for only 23%. As recently as 2019, the local share was approximately 64% and the state share was about 32%. As state funding struggles to keep pace, the local community is forced to shoulder more of the burden.

The five-year forecast is simply the district’s best estimation as to what might happen in the future. Many variables that affect the five-year forecast are currently unknown and out of the district’s control (i.e. state funding and economic inflation), and the forecast will be updated as those unknowns become known. Despite those challenges, Forest Hills School District remains committed to responsible fiscal planning and regularly evaluates internal processes and procedures to find ways to operate as efficiently as possible.